I don’t mind volatility. What i’m looking for is a consistent pattern of volatility where I know where the highs and lows are so that I can make money from the margin. What I don’t like is unpredictability. That means that charts jumping all over the place for no reason.

Yesterday the FT said that prices rose because of oil prices. Crap. Prices rose because the market thought they’d hit the bottom of a trough and bet that they could make some money. They were right.

For me, yesterday was a day when I made the wrong choice but didn’t lose any money. In the morning nobody knew where the prices where going - that was after days of heavy falls. To make the bet yesterday would have been foolish or a pure gamble. The thing is to see where things are going today and it looks like a minor decrease overall.

Which probably means a sharp decrease at some point in the very near future with a rally afterwards. But that could be preceeded with a gradual increase - the result of hope. But don’t take my word for it. Nobody knows anything.

So I’m hanging on. I think I have a feel for the bottom of the next trough. I’m waiting to pounce.

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