The fluctuation in mortgage interest rates has implications for when it the best time to buy and the best time to refinance a home mortgage. It is a popular misconception that low interest rates make for a good buying opportunity. It is not. Buy when interest rates are high, and refinance when interest rates are low.

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Mortgage interest rates are determined in an open market and are subject to the forces of supply and demand. These rates are the sum of three main components: riskless rate of return, risk premium, and inflation expectation. The Great Housing Bubble was characterized by historic lows in the interest rate components which resulted in the very low mortgage interest rates.

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Many people took out adjustable rate mortgages during the Great Housing Bubble. After 25 years of steadily declining interest rates, people forgot about, or never knew about the risk of rising interest rates and what it would do to their housing payments. Adjustable rate mortgages are great while interest rates are declining. Their payments are lower than fixed rate mortgages, and as interest rates decline, they become an even better deal. However, when interest rates go up again, these loans will become a nightmare.

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